GHG Mitigation beyond the NDC in Chile: An assessment of alternatives - Pyplan Models

Models of Chilean GHG emissions of the transportation, industry and mining, buildings, IPPU, forestry, agriculture, waste and electricity generation sectors, used to explore mitigation opportunities beyond Chile's NDC . Data includes projection of emisions and mitigation actions. We considered a baseline scenario where the Chilean NDC commitments are met. The mitigation actions considered in this scenario are what the team considered to be more plausible of occurring given the current policies in Chile, regardless of their cost.
The modelling was carried out based on the combination of scenarios and futures, where these two concepts are defined as follows:
● Futures: They represent a trajectory of exogenous parameters that represent a possible set of conditions that could facilitate (or difficult) the mitigation strategies.
● Mitigation Scenarios: They represent different mitigation strategies implemented at a national level. Each scenario considers a set of mitigation actions and their specific level of implementation.
We analyse two mitigation scenarios:
● NDC Mitigation Scenario (NDC): Considers the achievement of all the mitigation commitments for 2030 done by Chile in its last NDC.
● Beyond NDC Mitigation (NDC+): Considers enhanced mitigation actions to overachieve Chile's NDC commitments for 2030.