Assessing the resilience of circularity in water management: a modeling framework to redesign and stress-test regional systems under uncertainty

Contrary to the ‘make-use-dispose’ linearity of conventional management, circular economy design principles have been proposed as a resource management alternative that reduces waste and promotes efficiency. These principles also find use in water management, offering an alternative against centralized models. Despite the intrinsic links between circularity and resilience, few studies have advanced the identification and discussion of linkage beyond a theoretical or conceptual level. This study presents quantitative links between circularity and resilience, by demonstrating how different circular water management strategies lead to improved resilience performance for a regional urban-rural water system. A stress-testing framework based on a water cycle model is presented, where different circular interventions are evaluated in terms of their overall resilience against future uncertainty. The results demonstrate that circular water options lead to more resilient water systems. The more circular dimensions are addressed through interventions, the more robust resilience profiles become across different water cycle domains.