Decadal East Asian monsoon anomalies and implications for societal conflicts

The East Asian summer monsoon anomalies, responsible for floods and droughts across China, pose great challenges to the climate resilience of human society. However, mechanisms and impacts of decadal-scale monsoon variability remain poorly understood, due to limited instrumental data. Our annual-resolution speleothem record (1787–2007 A.D.) from China, along with simulation results, reveals a persistent monsoon weakening since the end of the Little Ice Age, superimposed by decadal oscillations. Five monsoon extremes, triggered by diminished solar output and further amplified by ocean-atmosphere processes in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, caused widespread megadroughts in China. One dramatic flood-drought abrupt alternation in the 1850s substantially contributed to the Taiping Rebellion (1851–1864 A.D.). Our findings demonstrate that monsoon anomalies can cause crop failure and exacerbate overpopulation, ultimately leading to social unrest, particularly in regions experiencing rapid demographic expansion.