Summary of parameters varied simultaneously in sensitivity analysis and their assumed distributions.

aWe used λ = 4 in all PERT distributions, to approximate the shape of a Normal distribution. We did an additional sensitivity analysis using triangular distributions (lower bound, best estimate, upper bound) instead of PERT distributions.bThe lower bound of the 95% predicted interval for Singapore was truncated at 1.0. Because we are dealing pooled EFT over a series of years, we would expect 1.0 to be the minimum plausible EFT. Although it is conceptually possible that EFT might be cTo be conservative, the lower bound of the PERT distribution for Malaysia is based the lower bound derived from a Delphi process in Malaysia by Shepard et al.[67]. We did not use the lower bound from the 95% CI of the regression (EFT = 5.0) because it is higher than the best estimate available (EFT = 3.8).Notation: EFT denotes expansion factors for total dengue episodes; EFH denotes expansion factors for hospitalized dengue episodes; OP∶IP denotes outpatient to inpatient ratio; PERT denotes the distribution used in program evaluation and review technique; μ denotes mean;, σ denotes standard deviation; PI denotes prediction interval.