LOCA2-STAR Ensemble SSP2-4.5 Temperature Variables

The Climate Resilience Information System (CRIS) provides data and tools for developers of climate services. This layer has projections of VAR in decadal increments from 1950 to 2100 and for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The variables included are: Annual average daily maximum temperature (°F) Annual average daily temperature (°F) Annual average daily minimum temperature (°F) Annual single highest maximum temperature (°F) Annual single lowest minimum temperature (°F) Annual average summertime (June, July, August) temperature (°F) This layer uses data from the LOCA2 and STAR-ESDM downscaled climate models for the Contiguous United States. Further processing by the NOAA Technical Support Unit at CICS-NC and Esri are explained below. For each time and SSP, there are minimum, maximum, and mean values for the defined respective geography: counties, tribal areas, HUC-8 watersheds. The process for deriving these summaries is available in Understanding CRIS Data. The combination of time and geography is available for a weighted ensemble of 16 climate projections. More details on the models included in the ensemble and the weighting methodologies can be found in CRIS Data Preparation. Other climate variables are available from the CRIS website’s Data Gallery page or can be accessed in the table below. Additional geographies, including Alaska, Hawai’i and Puerto Rico will be made available in the future. Geographies This layer provides projected values for three geographies: county, tribal area, and HUC-8 watersheds. County: based on the U.S. Census TIGER/Line 2022 distribution. Tribal areas: based on the U.S. Census American Indian/Alaska Native/Native Hawaiian Area dataset 2022 distribution. This dataset includes federal- and state-recognized statistical areas. HUC-8 watershed: based on the USGS Washed Boundary Dataset, part of the National Hydrography Database Plus High Resolution. Time Ranges Projected climate threshold values (e.g. Days Over 90°F) were calculated for each year from 2005 to 2100. Additionally, values are available for the modeled history runs from 1951 - 2005. The modeled history and future projections have been merged into a single time series and averaged by decade. Climate Scenarios Climate models use future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations and human activities to project overall change. These different scenarios are called the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Three different SSPs are available here: 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5 (STAR does not have SSP3-7.0). The number before the dash represents a societal behavior scenario. The number after the dash indicates the amount of radiative forcing (watts per meter square) associated with the greenhouse gas concentration scenario in the year 2100 (higher forcing = greater warming). It is unclear which scenario will be the most likely, but SSP 2-4.5 currently aligns with the international targets of the COP-26 agreement. SSP3-7.0 may be the most likely scenario based on current emission trends. SSP5-8.5 acts as a cautionary tale, providing a worst-case scenario if reductions in greenhouse gasses are not undertaken. Data Export Exporting this data into shapefiles, geodatabases, GeoJSON, etc is enabled.气候韧性信息系统（Climate Resilience Information System, CRIS）为气候服务开发者提供数据与工具。本图层提供了1950年至2100年间以十年为增量的VAR投影数据，涵盖三种共享社会经济路径（Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs）。 包含的变量如下：年平均日最高气温（华氏度，°F）、年平均气温（华氏度，°F）、年平均日最低气温（华氏度，°F）、年度单日极端最高气温（华氏度，°F）、年度单日极端最低气温（华氏度，°F）、年夏季（6、7、8月）平均气温（华氏度，°F）。 本图层采用针对美国本土的LOCA2与STAR-ESDM降尺度气候模型数据，后续由美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）CICS-NC技术支持单元及Esri完成进一步处理，具体流程详见下文。 针对每个时间维度与SSP场景，已针对预设地理单元生成最小值、最大值与平均值，地理单元包括县、部落区域、HUC-8流域。上述汇总值的推导流程可参阅《CRIS数据解析》（"Understanding CRIS Data"）。 本数据集提供了包含16个气候投影的加权集合结果，涵盖时间与地理维度的组合。关于集合包含的模型及加权方法的更多细节，可参阅《CRIS数据制备》（"CRIS Data Preparation"）。 其他气候变量可通过CRIS官网的数据图库页面获取，或通过下表查询。未来还将新增阿拉斯加、夏威夷及波多黎各等地理单元的数据。 ### 地理单元 本图层提供三类地理单元的投影数值：县、部落区域及HUC-8流域。 县：基于美国人口普查局TIGER/Line 2022数据集发布的行政区划。 部落区域：基于美国人口普查局2022年发布的美国印第安人/阿拉斯加原住民/夏威夷原住民区域数据集，涵盖联邦及州政府认定的统计区域。 HUC-8流域：基于美国地质调查局（USGS）冲刷边界数据集，属于国家水文数据库Plus高分辨率版本的组成部分。 ### 时间范围 本数据集针对2005年至2100年的每一年计算了气候阈值投影值（如超过90°F的天数）。此外，还提供了1951年至2005年的模型历史模拟结果。模型历史数据与未来投影数据已合并为单一时序序列，并按十年进行平均计算。 ### 气候情景 气候模型通过模拟温室气体浓度与人类活动的未来情景来预估气候变化，这类不同的情景被称为共享社会经济路径（SSPs）。本数据集提供三种SSP场景：2-4.5、3-7.0及5-8.5（注：STAR未提供SSP3-7.0场景）。横杠前的数字代表社会行为情景，横杠后的数字代表2100年时与温室气体浓度情景相关的辐射强迫量（瓦/平方米，W/m²），辐射强迫越高，意味着变暖程度越强。 目前尚无法确定哪种情景最贴合实际发展，但SSP 2-4.5目前符合第26届联合国气候变化大会（COP26）设定的国际气候目标。基于当前排放趋势，SSP3-7.0或为最贴合实际的情景。SSP5-8.5则作为警示场景，展示了若不采取温室气体减排措施将出现的最坏情况。 ### 数据导出 支持将本数据集导出为形状文件（shapefiles）、地理数据库（geodatabases）、GeoJSON等格式。