Map types as aid in using MOS PoPs in western United States

The purpose of this study was to investigate the correlation between individual map types and the performance characteristics of Model Output Statistics (MOS) probabiIity forecasts. The data sample used was June-August-1975 (summer season) and December-February 1976 (winter season). Brier Scores and improvement ratios were computed for map type and MOS probabiIity forecasts for various western United States stations for four 12-hour periods, with two exceptions, it was found that map types do not distinguish when more (or less) weight should be given to MOS PoP forecasts. A by-product result of this study showed that map types did provide excellent guidance material for forecasters to use in preparation of extended forecasts and/or outlooks. 1976 NWS (National Weather Service) WR (Western Region) Library Public Domain 1931