Solar Energy Forecasts for ERCOT Region & Sites

Vaisala Xweather provides accurate renewable energy forecasts for utility-scale wind and solar projects in North American RTO/ISO regions.

This high-quality data set for solar energy projects in the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region helps asset owners, project managers, and energy traders make confident, data-driven decisions at the site-specific and regional level to effectively manage investments, reduce future risks, and gain a competitive edge in energy markets.

- Look ahead with 7-day power forecasts at 1-hour intervals at the plant and regional level for real-time and day-ahead markets.

- Look back at site-level estimated actual power data in 5-minute intervals for the last 24 hours.

Xweather combines cutting-edge weather and environmental modeling, robust data science, and powerful supercomputing to produce accurate energy forecasts and actual power estimates for wind and solar projects.

This data set is updated daily with the latest 7-day forecast and the last 24 hours of estimated actual power data, for all sites in the ERCOT region in our database.

Your subscription includes access to additional data visualization tools and resources on the Vaisala Xweather renewable energy portal. Please see https://www.xweather.com/renewable-energy/forecasting for details.

Tables included:

LATEST 7-DAY FORECAST
LAST 24 HOURS ESTIMATED ACTUAL POWER
REGIONAL SITES METADATA

Fields included:

LATEST 7-DAY FORECAST
- NAME — renewable energy project name
- TIME — date and time for the forecast
- FORECAST — forecasted power in MW
- INTERVAL — the time between forecasts
- TIME ZONE — local time zone for time values
- FORECAST CREATION TIME — date and time the forecast was created
- MODEL INITIALIZATION TIME — date and time when the forecast model was initiated

LAST 24 HOURS ESTIMATED ACTUAL POWER
- NAME — renewable energy project name
- TIME — date and time for the observation
- ESTIMATED ACTUAL POWER — estimated actual power in MW
- INTERVAL — the time between observations
- TIME ZONE — local time zone for time values
- FILE CREATION TIME — date and time the file was created

REGIONAL SITES METADATA
- NAME — renewable energy project name
- ALTERNATE_NAME — alternative name
- EIA_PLANT_CODE — U.S. Energy Information Administration project ID
- MAX_CAPACITY — project capacity in MW
- MODEL — turbine model used in wind projects
- ONLINE_DATE — operational start date
- LATITUDE — location of the project
- LONGITUDE — location of the project
- STATE — location of the project
- COUNTY — location of the project

DATA FORMAT AND GRANULARITY

Data is provided for projects and sites within the ERCOT region in our database.

The data set includes three tables.

1) The first table contains site-specific metadata about each project in the region such as name, location, and capacity.

2) The second table provides a 7-day energy forecast (168 hours) in 1-hour intervals for each site in the region and a forecast for the ERCOT region as a whole.

3) The third table contains the estimated actual power output from each site and for the region as a whole over the last 24 hours in 5-minute intervals.

SOURCES
The total actual power for the region comes from ERCOT. The estimated actual power for each site in the region and the 7-day energy forecasts are produced using Vaisala's proprietary blend of numerical weather prediction trained models, statistical data modeling, and sophisticated machine-learning algorithms. Solar power estimates and forecasts combine each project’s unique environmental considerations with superior irradiance forecasts.

维萨拉Xweather（Vaisala Xweather）可为北美区域输电组织（Regional Transmission Organization, RTO）/独立系统运营商（Independent System Operator, ISO）管辖范围内的公用事业级风电和光伏项目提供精准的可再生能源发电量预测服务。

本数据集针对德克萨斯州电力可靠性委员会（Electricity Reliability Council of Texas, ERCOT）管辖范围内的光伏项目打造，可帮助资产所有者、项目经理与能源交易商在场站级及区域层面制定可靠的数据驱动型决策，从而有效管理投资、降低未来风险，并在能源市场中获取竞争优势。
- 可提供场站及区域层面的7天逐小时发电量预测，覆盖实时市场与日前市场。
- 可回溯近24小时内以5分钟为间隔的场站级预估实际发电量数据。

维萨拉Xweather依托前沿的气象与环境建模技术、成熟稳健的数据科学方案以及高性能超级计算能力，可为风电与光伏项目生成精准的发电量预测及实际发电量预估数据。

本数据集每日更新，涵盖数据库中ERCOT管辖范围内所有场站的最新7天预测数据与近24小时预估实际发电量数据。

订阅用户可访问维萨拉Xweather可再生能源门户上的额外数据可视化工具与相关资源，详情请参阅：https://www.xweather.com/renewable-energy/forecasting。

包含以下数据表：
LATEST 7-DAY FORECAST（最新7天发电量预测表）
LAST 24 HOURS ESTIMATED ACTUAL POWER（近24小时预估实际发电量表）
REGIONAL SITES METADATA（区域场站元数据表）

字段说明如下：

最新7天发电量预测表
- 项目名称（NAME）：可再生能源项目的官方名称
- 时间（TIME）：预测对应的日期与时间
- 预测发电量（FORECAST）：预测的发电量，单位为兆瓦（MW）
- 预测间隔（INTERVAL）：两次预测之间的时间跨度
- 时区（TIME ZONE）：时间值所对应的本地时区
- 预测生成时间（FORECAST CREATION TIME）：预测报告生成的日期与时间
- 模型初始化时间（MODEL INITIALIZATION TIME）：预测模型启动的日期与时间

近24小时预估实际发电量表
- 项目名称（NAME）：可再生能源项目的官方名称
- 观测时间（TIME）：数据对应的观测日期与时间
- 预估实际发电量（ESTIMATED ACTUAL POWER）：预估的实际发电量，单位为兆瓦（MW）
- 观测间隔（INTERVAL）：两次观测之间的时间跨度
- 时区（TIME ZONE）：时间值所对应的本地时区
- 文件生成时间（FILE CREATION TIME）：数据文件生成的日期与时间

区域场站元数据表
- 项目名称（NAME）：可再生能源项目的官方名称
- 别名（ALTERNATE_NAME）：项目的替代名称
- EIA项目代码（EIA_PLANT_CODE）：美国能源信息署（U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA）的项目ID
- 最大装机容量（MAX_CAPACITY）：项目装机容量，单位为兆瓦（MW）
- 机型（MODEL）：风电项目所使用的涡轮机型号
- 并网日期（ONLINE_DATE）：项目正式投运的日期
- 纬度（LATITUDE）：项目所在地理位置的纬度
- 经度（LONGITUDE）：项目所在地理位置的经度
- 州/省（STATE）：项目所在的州级行政区域
- 县/郡（COUNTY）：项目所在的县级行政区域

数据格式与粒度
本数据集仅覆盖数据库中ERCOT管辖范围内的项目与场站。
数据集共包含三张数据表：
1. 第一张数据表：收录区域内各项目的场站级元数据，包括项目名称、地理位置与装机容量等信息。
2. 第二张数据表：为区域内各场站提供以1小时为间隔的7天（共168小时）发电量预测数据，同时包含ERCOT整体区域的发电量预测结果。
3. 第三张数据表：收录近24小时内以5分钟为间隔的各场站及ERCOT整体区域的预估实际发电量数据。

数据来源
区域整体实际发电量数据源自ERCOT。区域内各场站的预估实际发电量与7天发电量预测，均基于维萨拉专有技术体系生成，该体系融合了经过训练的数值天气预报模型、统计数据建模方法与先进的机器学习算法。光伏发电量的预估与预测则结合了各项目独特的环境影响因素与高精度辐照度预测结果。