Labor under construction: understanding the dynamics of occupational and sectoral transitions

In Portugal, one-quarter of former construction workers do not intend to return to the sector, which limits growth prospects. Thus, aiming to inform strategies for workforce retention and mobility, this article identifies the factors influencing workers’ transitions to other sectors or occupational shifts within construction. The analysis uses a multi-source database covering all unemployed construction workers registered with the Portuguese Institute of Employment and Vocational Training between September 2022 and August 2023. A multinomial probit model estimates the probability of remaining in the same occupation, changing occupation within construction, or moving to another sector, based on personal characteristics, reasons for job disruption, local labor market conditions, and attributes of previous and desired occupations. Results indicate that overqualified and younger individuals are more likely to change occupations, while graduates prefer to stay in construction. Women intend to move to non-construction occupations, whereas men prefer changing within the sector. Finally, movers prioritize job security over higher wages. Theoretically, the study advances understanding of labor mobility dynamics by linking qualification alignment, gender, and job stability to the intention of occupational transitions. Practically, it underscores the need for retention policies fostering career progression, job security, gender inclusion, and stronger university-industry collaboration.