Predicting Master’s Program and Degree Completion Growth: The Impact of Tuition Revenue Dependence

Since the 1970s, master’s degrees represent the fastest growing degree in the United States (U.S.). Accordingly, there is a need for greater understanding of the factors that have contributed to this sustained, upward trend. Guided by resource dependence theory, we conducted regression analyses to examine whether more than 1,000 non-profit U.S. institutions’ dependence on tuition revenue (i.e., tuition revenue as a percentage of core revenues) is a statistically significant predictor of the percentage change in the number of master’s degree programs offered and master’s degree completions between 2005 and 2022. We found that tuition revenue dependence was a statistically significant predictor of the percentage change in master’s degree programs offered. This finding suggests that greater dependence on tuition revenue is associated with an increased number of master’s degree programs offered. Specifically, for a one standard deviation increase in tuition revenue as a percentage of core revenues, the percentage change in the number of master’s degree programs offered is expected to increase by 0.203 standard deviations. Additionally, we found that tuition revenue as a percentage of core revenues was not a statistically significant predictor of the percentage change in the number of master’s degree completions. We conclude by discussing the implications for institutional decision-making, aligning the supply and demand for master’s degrees, and directions for future research.