Surveying just transition pathways in global climate policy

Just Transitions (JT) toward sustainable, equitable, and low-carbon futures have become a central focus of global climate policy, exemplified by initiatives such as Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JET-Ps) and the UNFCCC Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP). For some actors, JT is understood in sectoral terms, focusing on energy transitions. Others emphasise more transformative approaches grounded in global structural reform and climate justice. Although existing scholarship has mapped JT framings in the literature, across national climate policy and non-academic frameworks, no study has yet examined how individuals shaping global climate policy themselves understand and prioritise JT. Approximately 130 Blue Zone-accredited attendees (i.e. those with access to the formal negotiations) were surveyed at COP28 in Dubai, including party delegates, policy-makers, civil society representatives and others. The survey was structured around five JT typologies – from least to most transformative – drawn from existing literature, as well two novel typologies: one centered on energy, another on sustainable development. Results indicate a strong preference for approaches extending beyond energy to encompass broader sustainable development concerns, with policy coherence identified as a crucial governance principle. Respondents also favour more transformative policies around global structural reform and climate finance for lower-income countries, while the most prioritized justice dimension is accountability and responsibility for climate change. The results also show differences in preferences between participants from high- and lower-income countries, with the latter favouring more transformative notions of JT. However, overall, JT preferences straddle multiple typologies, suggesting that policy mixes delivering broader sustainable development outcomes could provide an effective and politically viable way to reconcile competing views. By exploring the perspectives of those shaping global climate policy, the paper enriches scholarly discussions on JT framings, while offering guidance and directions for the ongoing JTWP negotiations amidst the latest COP30 decision to establish a global just transition mechanism.

Just Transitions (JTs) that address broader sustainable development issues – such as equality and poverty reduction – are preferred over those focused solely on energy.
There is strong support for financial flows from high- to low-income countries, as well as restorative justice and accountability for climate change;
Policy coherence is highly valued, highlighting the need for integrated, cross-sectoral approaches to JTs and their governance.
There is high support for JTs that propose a re-thinking of current economic systems and that promote greater equity and equality between high-income and lower-income countries; however, de-growth is not prioritized.
Sustainable development emerges as the most politically viable and widely supported JT framework, bridging differences between participants from high- and low-income countries and aligning with major international agreements, including the 2030 Agenda.

Just Transitions (JTs) that address broader sustainable development issues – such as equality and poverty reduction – are preferred over those focused solely on energy.
There is strong support for financial flows from high- to low-income countries, as well as restorative justice and accountability for climate change;
Policy coherence is highly valued, highlighting the need for integrated, cross-sectoral approaches to JTs and their governance.
There is high support for JTs that propose a re-thinking of current economic systems and that promote greater equity and equality between high-income and lower-income countries; however, de-growth is not prioritized.
Sustainable development emerges as the most politically viable and widely supported JT framework, bridging differences between participants from high- and low-income countries and aligning with major international agreements, including the 2030 Agenda.