Opportunity costs in building maintenance: applying guarantee standards in the public sector

This study investigates the opportunity costs of maintaining public buildings, focusing on Brazil’s technical standard NBR 17.170. We examine whether structured maintenance planning reduces opportunity costs; how building characteristics influence deviations from optimal maintenance costs; and whether opportunity-cost analysis can inform policy and resource allocation in resource-limited contexts. Drawing on data from state buildings in Amazonia, we develop a counterfactual econometric framework to estimate maintenance cost deviations. Using four estimation strategies (Robust OLS, Bootstrap, Jackknife and Bayesian regression), we quantify the marginal effects of planning adherence, construction typology and building size on cost inefficiencies. Results indicate that buildings with formal maintenance plans incur significantly lower opportunity costs; contemporary and larger facilities show higher inefficiencies due to specialized maintenance needs and scale complexity; and counterfactual modeling effectively identifies high-impact areas for targeted preventive interventions. This research fills a methodological gap in the maintenance literature by integrating predictive modeling with technical compliance assessment in low-data environments. The findings reveal systemic challenges in applying national standards in decentralized, resource-limited contexts. Even partial compliance with NBR 17.170 yields measurable savings, offering a practical policy path to enhance public infrastructure performance in developing regions.