What I Think Others Think About Climate Change: Public Perceptions of Climate Change Beliefs Across 11 Countries

On average, Australians and Americans substantially overestimate the number of people who are skeptical about climate change. This example of a bias, known as pluralistic ignorance, reduces support for climate change policies and willingness to discuss climate change. A key factor in promoting proxies of climate action may thus lie in understanding whether pluralistic ignorance generalizes to other countries and whether interventions can reduce its potential negative consequences. In a 10-minute online experiment, we will assess actual and perceived climate change beliefs to test whether climate change-related pluralistic ignorance generalizes across 11 countries (Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Poland, and Thailand, N = 330 per country). We will then inform individuals about the actual distribution of climate change beliefs in their country, based on a representative survey in 2020 (YouGov Cambridge, 2020). Subsequently, we will investigate whether this disclosure intervention can increase certain outcomes associated with climate action in the believing majority in the experimental compared to the control condition. These outcomes include (a) expectations about others’ willingness to make lifestyle changes to mitigate climate change and others’ support for government action on climate change, (b) one’s own willingness to make lifestyle changes and one’s own support for government actions, (c) efficacy beliefs that citizens of one’s country can jointly prevent the negative consequences of climate change, and (d) willingness to express one’s opinion on climate change. This is a preregistration of the article: Geiger, S. J., Köhler, J. K., Delabrida, Z. N. C., Garduño-Realivazquez, K. A., Haugestad, C. A. P., Imada, H., Iyer, A., Maharja, C., Mann, D. C., Marczak, M., Melville, O., Nijssen, S. R. R., Powdthavee, N., Praptiwi, R. A., Ranade, G., Rosa, C. D., Vitale, V., Winkowska, M., Zhang, L., & White, M. P. (2025). What We Think Others Think and Do About Climate Change: A Multicountry Test of Pluralistic Ignorance and Public-Consensus Messaging. Psychological Science, 36(6), 421-442. https://doi.org/10.1177/09567976251335585 (Original work published 2025) Support for this research is provided by the ZPID preregistration grant. This research was supported by a preregistration grant from the Leibniz Institute for Psychology (ZPID), an early adopter grant from besample (https://besample.app/), and an internal grant from the Doctoral School in Cognition, Behavior, and Neuroscience at the University of Vienna. peerReviewed other