Regional Power Transitions (1820—2024)

This dataset is partly descriptive and partly quantitative. It identifies 34 historical periods of “parity” between leading regional powers in the international system from 1820 to 2024. Parity is defined as any period during which the leading country in a region, measured by GDP, had one or more regional challengers with GDPs between 80% and 125% of its own, based on Maddison historical economic data. The 80% threshold follows the definition proposed by Organski and Kugler (1980), who identify parity within this range as a condition conducive to power transitions and heightened conflict risk. For each episode of regional parity, the dataset records the following variables: (1) Period, (2) Global Leader, (3) Regional Interests of the Global Leader, (4) Region, (5) Dominant Regional Power, (6) Regional Challenger 1, (7) Regional Challenger 2 (if applicable), (8) Satisfaction (of the challenger), (9) Qualitative Rationale (for coding satisfaction or dissatisfaction), (10) Length of Transition (period of parity), (11) Expected Outcome, (12) Actual Outcome, (13) Initiator of Conflict or Escalation (if applicable), (14) Dominant Power After Transition period, (15) Whether Outcome Expectations Were Met. The dataset enables scholars to investigate whether Power Transition Theory, originally formulated at the global level, also holds explanatory value at the regional level. It offers a structured, replicable framework for analyzing how economic parity among regional rivals has historically shaped patterns of war, peace, and regional order. Note that this dataset is not (nor will be in the future) peer reviewed.