A method for probabilistic assessment of tunneling-induced damage to surface structures considering soil-structure interaction effects

Uncertainty in the early stage assessment of surface structure damage caused by tunneling-induced ground movements is analyzed with a Monte-Carlo method and a numerical model for tunnel-soil-structure interaction. The sources of uncertainty in tunneling-induced ground movements are quantified using field monitoring data, and the uncertainties in soil and structure properties are characterized from published experimental tests and empirical analyses. Then, a probabilistic assessment method to analyze structural damage is proposed and demonstrated by two case studies. Variance-based sensitivity analysis and factor mapping analysis are conducted to demonstrate how the method can identify dominant sources of damage assessment uncertainty. For both case studies, volume loss was found to contribute most to the uncertainty in building damage prediction; the contribution of other parameters varies significantly for different tunneling scenarios. However, the factor mapping analysis shows that t...