Posterior distribution median and 95% prediction intervals determined by ABC fitting of Approximate Bayesian Computation models for Hansen’s Disease to data from the 5 regions of Brazil.

Version 4 consisted of fitting the regional best-fit model to each region’s observed data separately with both frequency and density-dependent transmission assumptions; all other versions used a hierarchical structure with density-dependent transmission in which at least some parameters were shared across regions, and fitting was done simultaneously across all 5 regions. Mean error refers to the average value of d per iteration of each version, based on a sample of 1,000 iterations, with confidence intervals based on 100 samples of 100 iterations each.