A Modeling Study of ≥2 MeV Electron Fluxes at Different Prediction Time Scales Based on LSTM and Transformer Networks

The geostationary orbit is located in the Earth's radiation belts where the geostationary satellites may encounter high-energy electrons that could potentially damage them. With the number of geostationary satellites steadily increasing, there is an increasing need for services that provide accurate predictions of relativistic electron fluxes and provide hazard warning to satellite operators. We develop prediction models based on LSTM and transformer networks to provide the predictions at different prediction time scales of ≥2 MeV electron fluxes with 5-minute resolution at the geostationary orbit. Compared with previous models, our models show great performances for the 1-hour and 3-hour predictions.