Association Between Novel Inflammatory Markers and Arteriovenous Fistula Maturation Failure: A Predictive Model Based on Logistic Regression

In this retrospective cohort study of 144 patients with end-stage renal disease undergoing arteriovenous fistula (AVF) creation, we assessed preoperative systemic inflammatory and nutritional biomarkers—including platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), systemic inflammation response index (SIRI), systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio (AAPR), and fibrinogen-to-albumin ratio (FAR)—and developed a multivariate logistic regression model to predict AVF maturation failure. We found that advanced age and elevated levels of PLR, SII, and FAR were significantly associated with AVF maturation failure. The final model, which incorporated all six markers, achieved an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.794, outperforming individual biomarkers and prior prediction models. We also derived a practical scoring system to stratify patients by their risk of AVF failure.