Century-long tree population dynamics in a deciduous forest stand in central Sweden

Question: We quantify tree dynamics over a century of free development in a small broadleaved forest dominated by Fraxinus excelsior and Ulmus glabra. What are the internal and external factors driving the changes, and how predictable are they? What were the time scale and effects of the spread of Dutch elm disease (DED)?
Location: Vårdsätra, eastern central Sweden.
Methods: The survival, growth and recruitment of all trees (≥ 12 cm in girth) were monitored in 1912, 1967, 1988 and 2013 (more often for a part of the forest). Woody species in the field and shrub layers were surveyed in permanent plots in 1976 and 2012. We used transition matrix models to project changes in population sizes and species composition within the century and for 2050.
Results: The results indicate that the forest was in a successional development during the first period. The species composition had stabilised by 1967, except for an expansion of Acer platanoides and the drastic effect of DED that struck the f...