DataSet: Images, Scripts, Figures for Financial Repression as Silent Default: Fiscal Dominance, Exorbitant Privilege, and the Repression Tax in the United States, Colombia, and Peru (2020–2024)

This repository contains the complete replication package for the working paper "Financial Repression as Silent Default: Fiscal Dominance, Exorbitant Privilege, and Development Costs in the United States, Colombia, and Peru (2020–2024)" by Restrepo Morales et al. (2025). Contents: scripts/01_data_collection.py — Downloads monthly US data via FRED API (DGS10, CPIAUCSL, FEDFUNDS, GFDEGDQ188S) and assembles verified monthly series for Colombia (BanRep/DANE) and Peru (BCRP/INEI) into a 168-observation panel. scripts/02_analysis.py — Produces all tables and figures: Newey-West HAC t-tests, Bai-Perron structural breaks (PELT), block-bootstrap repression tax CIs (B=2,000), panel OLS (country + year FE), hedonic counterfactual, and policy-response regression. data/raw/ — Country-level monthly series (us_monthly.csv, colombia_monthly.csv, peru_monthly.csv). data/processed/panel_monthly.csv — Merged 3-country panel (168 obs, Jan 2020–Dec 2024). output/tables/ — Six analysis tables in CSV format. output/figures/ — Four publication-quality figures (PDF + PNG, 300 dpi). paper/ — LaTeX source (main.tex), bibliography (references.bib), and compiled PDF. Key findings: The U.S. repression tax peaked at 4.94% of GDP [95% CI: 4.44, 6.53] during 2021–2022. Colombia and Peru recorded shallower but statistically significant episodes (0.14% and 0.19% of GDP, respectively). Panel OLS confirms that reserve-currency status enables ~17.7 pp deeper real-yield suppression per unit of debt. The hedonic counterfactual implies the official U.S. repression tax is understated by 0.60–0.78% of GDP per year. Software: Python 3.13. Required packages: pandas, numpy, statsmodels, ruptures, matplotlib, seaborn, requests. Internet access required for FRED download (Step 1). Run instructions: python scripts/01_data_collection.py && python scripts/02_analysis.py