Thermal regime modeling of the public supply tropical reservoir at Juiz de Fora, MG, Brazil

Abstract Water temperature changes and the dynamics of thermal stratification of an aquatic ecosystem directly influence physical, chemical and biological processes. Due to disturbances in these environments, such as climate change and multiple water uses, studies which employ modeling are important to support emergency decision-making and future planning. In this context, this study evaluated the thermal behavior of the water supply reservoir of São Pedro, located in the city of Juiz de Fora, MG, using mathematical modeling with the IPH-ECO model to evaluate the surface temperature of water, based on meteorological and hydrological data representing the forcing and boundary conditions, respectively. The modeling of the thermal system showed a significant correlation between predicted and observed values, characterizing the reservoir as a homogeneous environment. The simulations indicated that the tributary contribution determines the pattern of spatio-temporal distribution of water temperature in the reservoir, limiting or regulating the variability of its temperature.