Supplementary Materials for "The Multi-Sectoral Collapse in Gaza: Scenario-Based Analysis of Health System Reconstruction in a Protracted Complex Emergency"

This supplementary materials file supports the manuscript titled "The Multi-Sectoral Collapse in Gaza: Scenario-Based Analysis of Health System Reconstruction in a Protracted Complex Emergency." It contains detailed methodological appendices, extended datasets, and comprehensive projections that underpin the scenario-based analysis presented in the main paper. The materials include six supplementary tables (S1–S6) and two methodological notes that provide transparency and depth to the study's approach.Supplementary Table S1 provides a complete source matrix and quality assessment of the 89 sources included in the narrative synthesis. Table S2 offers a detailed sensitivity analysis of critical variables affecting scenario outcomes. Table S3 elaborates on the integrated probability estimation methodology combining historical analog scoring, expert elicitation, and current trajectory analysis. Table S4 presents detailed quantitative projections across six societal domains (health, mental health, education, economy, environment, and governance) for three scenarios (Worst-Case, Status Quo, Optimistic) to 2035. Table S5 details recovery trajectories from 12 historical analog cases. Table S6 documents the expert elicitation protocol and results.Supplementary Note 1 provides methodological justification for numerical ranges used in projections, while Note 2 discusses limitations and uncertainty bounds. These materials are intended for researchers, policymakers, and practitioners working in health system recovery, humanitarian response, and post-conflict reconstruction who seek to understand the evidence base, methodological rigor, and detailed projections behind the scenario analysis. The data support evidence-based planning for Gaza's recovery and provide a model for analyzing health system reconstruction in other protracted complex emergencies.