Coral Reef Resilience and Social Vulnerability to Climate Change: CNMI

We present an analysis of exposure, resilience, and social vulnerability to climate change threats to the coral reefs of the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), relative to the rest of the U.S. Pacific. We focus primarily on the increases in ocean temperatures and the impact of coral bleaching on CNMI’s coral reefs and the communities that depend on them. Ocean temperatures will rise across the region, with little potential for refuge areas from warming. There are, however, important differences in reefs’ resilience; the ability of a reef to resist or recover from the impacts of warming and continue to provide ecosystem goods and services. Our metrics of social vulnerability suggest that CNMI’s human populations may face challenges relative to the rest of the U.S. Pacific, especially from housing and personal disruption.