National Accounts - Quarterlies September 2019 Data Collection

REVISIONS September 2019 quarter We made numerous revisions to previously published data in this release. The revisions come from three sources: • quarterly series reconciled to new annual benchmark data • methodology improvements through updated data sources • updated indicator data. Quarterly series reconciled to new annual benchmark data resulting in updated annual weights In the September quarter of each year, we reconcile quarterly constant price series to new annual national accounts data which have been through the process of supply-use balancing. This reconciliation process is essential to maintain the quality of the quarterly series over time by allowing us to include more comprehensive detail previously uncaptured by our quarterly indicators. This benchmarking can cause revisions to recent years and affects both annual and quarterly growth rates of series. The new annual data comes from National accounts (industry production and investment): Year ended March 2018 and National accounts (income and expenditure): Year ended March 2019, both published on 21 November 2019. Please also see the 2019 national accounts improvements preview for further information. Not all industries are reconciled to the annual national accounts data. The methods we use to calculate the annual contribution to GDP by industry vary – some industries use annual national accounts data, while others use other data sources. However, the annual benchmarking process affects all industries and components through updated weights used for chain-linking, which allows the relative size of each lower-level series to be reflected in the industry and component aggregates. At your service – the changing face of the economy is an article and tool which visually shows how the composition of industries contributing to New Zealand’s economy has changed through the years using annual national accounts data. Methodology changes and updated data sources We have also implemented methodology changes and updated data sources that led to revisions to the whole time series of GDP. Revisions to agriculture volume data We revised our quarterly horticulture volume input measures across our time series to better match those used in the calculation of annual current price horticulture estimates. This resulted in revisions to the chained levels from 1996 onwards but did not affect quarterly growth rates. Financial and insurance services We have incorporated the Reserve Bank’s other fees and commissions data for banks and other financial institutions starting this quarter and this has caused revisions to the banking and financing industry. As this more timely data from the Reserve Bank is available from September 2013 onwards, we are seeing revisions to this industry from around that period. Transport, postal and warehousing A revision to the price index related to road user charges has impacted road transport and transport support services back to the December 2018 quarter. The road user charge index was revised to better capture the timing of price changes. The revisions section in Business price indexes: September 2019 quarter has more information. Improvements in rental price index in household consumption expenditure (HCE) We have updated the underlying price indexes used in the compilation of the housing and household utilities component of HCE. This is due to a change in methodology to utilise tenancy bond data, as seen in New approach for rent measurement a world first. This has resulted in revisions to HCE back to the June 2016 quarter. Further to this, updated social assistance benefit in kind (SABIKS) data has resulted in further revisions to HCE back to the June 1998 quarter. Inventories revisions from incorporation of annual enterprise survey (AES) data Stock change was revised up for manufacturing and other inventories as AES data was introduced for 2018. The increases were for both raw materials and finished goods and were widespread within manufacturing and across other industries. Increases in raw material inventories boosts the expenditure measure of GDP but does not necessarily have the same impact on the quarterly production measure of GDP. Increased raw material inventories should result in lower intermediate consumption and therefore higher industry value added for the production measure of GDP. However, intermediate consumption is not part of volume methods for many industries (including manufacturing). Updated indicator data Updated indicator data caused revisions to recent quarters for the following industries and components: Agriculture – new and updated information from Ministry of Primary Industries (MPI), AES, Linked Employer-Employee Data (LEED) and other data sources. Mining; and Electricity, gas, water and waste services – revised data from Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment (MBIE). Manufacturing – revised data from Quarterly Manufacturing Survey (QMS) data. Public administration and safety and local government final consumption expenditure – revised data from Quarterly Local Authority Statistics (QLAS). Inventories – revised due to the process of reconciling inventory changes with the rest of the economy. This process minimises timing and valuation issues. Imports and exports – standard revisions due to updated overseas trade data moving from a provisional state to a final one in the June 2019 quarter. Updated respondent data has resulted in revisions to imports and exports of repairs and maintenance services in the June 2019 quarter. For more information please see Balance of payments and international investment position: September 2019 quarter. More information on the methods used for calculating each industry of GDP, and each component of the expenditure measure of GDP, is in the Quarterly gross domestic product: Sources and methods (fifth edition). Revisions tables The following table shows the previously published and revised quarterly movements for the September 2016-June 2019 quarters' GDP and expenditure on GDP (GDE). Previously published and revised quarterly movements GDP GDE Percentage change from previous quarter Quarter Previously published Revised Previously published Revised September 2016 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.6 December 2016 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 March 2017 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.9 June 2017 0.9 1.1 0.7 1.4 September 2017 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.2 December 2017 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.8 March 2018 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 June 2018 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.7 September 2018 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.4 December 2018 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.9 March 2019 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.4 June 2019 0.5 0.1 0.7 0.5 Source: Stats NZ The following table shows previously published and revised quarterly movements for the September 2016–June 2019 quarters’ GDP per capita and RGNDI per capita. Previously published and revised quarterly movements GDP per capita RGNDI per capita Percentage change from previous quarter Quarter Previously published Revised Previously published Revised September 2016 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 December 2016 -0.1 -0.2 1.3 1.3 March 2017 0.3 0.2 -0.5 -0.5 June 2017 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.2 September 2017 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 December 2017 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.9 March 2018 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 June 2018 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 September 2018 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 December 2018 0.2 0.6 -0.7 -0.2 March 2019 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.0 June 2019 0.2 -0.3 0.5 -0.2 Source: Stats NZ en-NZ