Climate-economy model scenario runs and sensitivity analysis using DICE-2016

This paper assesses the prospects for climate stabilization from both positive and normative economic perspectives, and with an eye to the conditions necessary for collective action across the three domains: domestic, international, and intergenerational. While it is well-established that international freeriding and transaction costs pose major impediments to successful environmental agreements, this analysis identifies the intergenerational domain as the source of intractability due to long delays between enduring mitigation costs and enjoying their eventual climate benefits. This lag causes the net benefits for median-aged voters’ to be negative over their expected remaining lifespans. Drawing on estimates from several Integrated Assessment Models of the benefits and costs of climate stabilization actions, the analysis concludes that a program of domestic and international climate actions will be hopelessly stymied by the failure of the actions to pass individual and collective rati...