Adjusted estimates of individual risks.

The median (and 95% confidence interval) of the increase in risk of individuals who are in the top x% of risk, relative to the average, for three common diseases. Values are estimated (using 100,000 simulations of a population of 10,000 individuals) from a set of replicated associations (see Tables S2, S3, S4) using published point estimates of the risk attributed to carrying a copy of the risk allele and its frequency in population controls. Unadjusted values use these numbers directly in the simulation of individual risks. For the adjusted values we simulate the relative risk and risk allele frequency from its posterior distribution using two different priors: conservative and MAF-dependent (see text).