Potential Impact of PrEP Introduced in 2007 on HIV-1 Infections in Southern Sub-Saharan Africa^‡^¶

‡These are conservative projections based on estimates of the size of adult population [47], [71] and assuming constant incidence [73]–[75], [89], prevalence [47] and growth rate [47]. ¶For southern sub-Saharan Africa overall, projections are based on the UNAIDS/WHO statement that the total number of infections in this region were 1.1 million for three consecutive years including 2005 [75]. With this estimate as a constant, low projection assumes 86% of these infections occur in adults, while the high projection assumes the full estimate. §Excludes Angola, Madagascar, Mauritius and Seychelles. †Refers to median country-prevalence.