Alternative Management Paradigms for the Future of the Colorado and Green Rivers

Our ability to sustainably manage the Colorado River is clearly in doubt. The Bureau of Reclamation’s 2012 Water Supply and Demand Study demonstrated the precarious balance that currently exists between water supply and the amount consumptively used by society. A future with either declining water supplies or additional consumptive uses will undoubtedly upset this balance. This balance is threatened because: (1) climate change science predicts that watershed runoff will decline due to increased evapotranspiration from rising temperatures; and (2) water users, especially in the Upper Basin, aspire to increase consumptive uses by developing new projects. This white paper describes how declining runoff and increased consumptive use will impact water supplies and ecosystems, and also considers how these risks can be addressed.

The objective of the White Paper is to encourage wide-ranging and innovative thinking about how to sustainably manage the water supply, while simultaneously encouraging the negotiators of new agreements to consider their effects on ecosystems. To achieve this objective, we introduce a wide variety of alternative management paradigms that offer significant modifications or entirely new approaches to the status quo. Because of the magnitude and severity of the impending challenges that the basin faces, we intentionally describe and evaluate approaches that some might consider radical due to existing and assumed physical or management constraints. However, all infrastructural and institutional constraints on the Colorado River have been developed over only the last century, and to assume that decisions must remain bound by such constraints may limit our ability to identify innovative solutions needed to meet the challenges ahead. The goal of this white paper is to encourage conversation and consideration of new management concepts that will better meet future needs.

我国对科罗拉多河进行可持续管理的可能性无疑存疑。美国土地管理局于2012年发布的供水与需求研究显示，当前水资源供应与社会消耗量之间所存在的微妙平衡正面临着巨大挑战。无论是水资源供应的减少还是额外消耗的增加，都无疑将打破这一平衡。这一平衡受到威胁的原因有：一、气候变化科学预测，由于气温上升导致的蒸散量增加，流域径流将减少；二、用水户，尤其是上游流域，希望通过开发新项目来增加消耗性用水。本白皮书旨在阐述径流减少和消耗性用水增加将如何影响水资源供应和生态系统，并探讨如何应对这些风险。

白皮书的目标是激发关于如何可持续管理水资源的广泛而创新的思考，同时鼓励新协议的谈判者考虑其对生态系统的影响。为实现这一目标，我们提出了多种替代管理模式，这些模式提供了对现状的重大修改或全新的方法。鉴于流域面临的挑战的严重性和规模，我们特意描述并评估了一些人可能会因为现有的和假设的物理或管理约束而视为激进的方案。然而，对科罗拉多河的几乎所有基础设施和制度性约束都是在仅过去的一个世纪里形成的，假设决策必须受制于这些约束可能会限制我们识别创新解决方案的能力，以应对未来的挑战。本白皮书的目标是促进对话，并考虑新的管理概念，以期更好地满足未来的需求。