Mutating ENSO impact on Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones under global warming

A prominent feature of the western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) anomaly in response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dipole structure in the present-day (PD) climate. Here, large ensemble high-resolution simulations show that the current dipole may transform into a monopole under global warming (GW). The ENSO-induced dipole effect on the WNP TCGF is mainly observed in late autumn, the near-shore TCGF remains relatively unchanged during summer. However, the GW accelerates the ENSO effect into the summer by amplifying atmospheric circulation anomalies. Consequently, this leads to a significant increase in the coastal TCGF during the development phase of El Niño under GW. Meanwhile, it weakens the anomalous anticyclonic circulation during late autumn, leading to a decrease in coastal TCGF during the mature phase of El Niño, and vice versa. Therefore, the combined effect suggests a potential trend toward spatial homogenization during ENSO phases under GW.