They Can't All Be Stars: The Matthew Effect, Cumulative Status Bias, and Status Persistence in NBA All-Star Elections

This study investigates the extent to and mechanisms through which Matthew effects create persistent status hierarchies. We propose a model that highlights the role of cumulative status bias in the feedback loop that leads from initial status allocation to status confirmation. We investigate the formalized process of repeated status allocation in annual elections to the National Basketball Association (NBA) All-Star game. Using detailed records on player performances allows us to isolate the Matthew effect from actual productivity differences to show that a previous All-Star nomination improves the chances to be re-nominated. We demonstrate that this Matthew effect is partly explained by improved productivity after an All-Star nomination, but voters’ evaluations are also directly biased by a player’s prior status. Multiple previous nominations further improve a player’s chances, confirming the importance of cumulative status bias. The resulting status-biased persistence of achieved status implies ever greater decoupling of productivity and status, undermining the meritocratic allocation of status and resources even more than the existing literature acknowledges.

本研究旨在探讨马太效应在构建持久性等级体系中的程度及其机制。本研究提出了一种模型，强调累积性地位偏差在从初始地位分配到地位确认的反馈循环中的作用。我们探讨了年度全国篮球协会（NBA）全明星赛的重复性地位分配的规范化过程。通过对球员表现的详细记录，我们能够将马太效应从实际生产率差异中分离出来，以表明前一次全明星提名提高了再次被提名的机会。我们证明，这种马太效应部分可由全明星提名后的生产率提升来解释，但投票者的评价也直接受到球员先前地位的影响。多次提名进一步提高了球员的机会，证实了累积性地位偏差的重要性。所形成的状态偏差的持久性意味着生产率与地位之间的进一步脱钩，这比现有文献所认可的更能削弱基于功绩的地位和资源的分配。