The top-ranked set of ordinal regression models relating leaf damage of A. hippocastanum with the number of years that C. ohridella was predicted to have been present.

Models are ordered by relative model fit (ΔAIC) and only those with ΔAICThe form of the relationship of years present with leaf damage. The segmented regression models show a linear or log-linear relationship up to the break-point, after which the relationship is constant.All the top-ranked regression models were based on the modeled distribution of C. ohridella, assuming either 2 or 3 generations per year. Regression models including the directly observed year of arrival were included in the candidate model set, but all had ΔAIC>10.7, so are not shown here.