ForceSMIP Tier 1 Data Repository

Data archive for Tier 1 of the ForceSMIP project, which is described in "Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP)" by Wills et al. 2026. Please cite that paper for any usage of this data. Wills, R.C.J., C. Deser, K.A. McKinnon, A. Phillips, S. Po-Chedley, S. Sippel, A.L. Merrifield, C. Bône, C. Bonfils, G. Camps-Valls, S. Cropper, C. Connolly, S. Duan, H. Durand, A. Feigin, M.A. Fernandez, G. Gastineau, A. Gavrilov, E. Gordon, M. Günther, M. Höver, S. Kravtsov, Y.-N. Kuo, J. Lien, G.D. Madakumbra, N. Mankovich, M. Newman, J. Rader, J.-R. Shi, S.-I. Shin, G. Varando, 2026: Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP), Journal of Climate, 39 (8), 1927–1953, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0326.1. Types of data included here are: Evaluation-Tier1: Raw data for 10 evaluation members, including reanalysis/observations (member "1I") ensmeans-Tier1: The "true forced response", from the corresponding large ensemble mean, for the 9 evaluation members that are from models (all except "1I") ForceSMIP-estimates-Tier1: ForcesSMIP method estimates of the forced response in each evaluation member Each of these types of data is provided at monthly temporal resolution over 1950-2022, for each of 8 variables: tos (sea-surface temperature), tas (surface air temperature), pr (precipitation), psl (sea-level pressure), monmaxtasmax (monthly maximum daily maximum temperature), monmintasmin (monthly minimum daily minimum temperature), monmaxpr (monthly maximum daily precipitation), and zmta (zonal-mean atmospheric temperature). Annual maximums of monmaxtasmax and monmaxpr give the annual maximums TXx and Rx1day following standard notational conventions in the study of extreme events (Zhang et al. 2011, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.147). Similarly, the annual minimum of monmintasmin gives TNn. For further details about the dataset and how it was generated, see Wills et al. 2026. Correspondence: Robert Jnglin Wills ([e-mail])