Changing trend of benign hepatobiliary and pancreatic diseases among people aged 15—39 years in China in 1990—2021

ObjectiveTo investigate the changing trends of the incidence rate， prevalence rate， mortality rate， and disability-adjusted life years （DALYs） of benign hepatobiliary and pancreatic diseases among people aged 15 — 39 years in China in 1990 — 2021.MethodsThe data of 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study were downloaded to obtain the epidemiological data of liver fibrosis/chronic liver disease， benign gallbladder/biliary tract diseases， and pancreatitis among people aged 15 — 39 years in China， and estimated annual percentage change （EAPC） was calculated to assess the changing trends of incidence， prevalence， mortality， and DALY rates. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the incidence and mortality rates from 2022 to 2030.ResultsIn 2021， there were 10 448 778 new cases of benign hepatobiliary and pancreatic diseases among the individuals aged 15 — 39 years in China， which was increased by 3.8% compared with the data in 1990， while the numbers of prevalent cases， deaths， and DALYs were reduced by 20.4%， 59.6%， and 50.2%， respectively. In 2021， the age-standardized incidence rates of liver fibrosis/chronic liver disease， benign gallbladder/biliary tract diseases， and pancreatitis were 1 104.40/100 000， 1 045.05/100 000， and 16.64/100 000， respectively； the age-standardized prevalence rates were 20 592.37/100 000， 2 364.85/100 000， and 9.43/100 000， respectively； the age-standardized mortality rates were 1.61/100 000， 0.04/100 000， and 0.18/100 000， respectively. From 1990 to 2021， there was a tendency of increase in the age-standardized incidence rate of liver fibrosis/chronic liver disease （EAPC=0.43， 95% confidence interval ［CI］： 0.23 — 0.63）， and there was also a tendency of increase in the age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates of benign gallbladder/biliary tract diseases （incidence rate： EAPC=1.07， 95%CI： 0.91 — 1.24； prevalence rate： EAPC=0.75， 95%CI： 0.59 — 0.89）， while there was a tendency of reduction in the age-standardized mortality rate of all three disease categories. Predictions for 2022 — 2030 indicated a potential reduction in the incidence rate of benign gallbladder/biliary tract diseases and an increase in the incidence rate of pancreatitis.ConclusionThere has been an overall upward trend in the incidence rate of liver fibrosis/chronic liver disease and gallbladder/biliary tract diseases over the past three decades， and it is needed to pay attention to the disease burden of benign hepatobiliary diseases among the people aged 15 — 39 years in China.