Spatial-temporal evolution of natural gas supply and demand in China

Studying the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of natural gas supply and demand is of significant importance for optimizing resource allocation and formulating energy policies. This study examines the spatiotemporal evolution of natural gas supply and demand in China from 2004 to 2022, using Lorenz curve analysis, gravity center model, and Moran's index. The research reveals that the total supply and demand of natural gas in China have been steadily increasing, with 2009 marking the turning point from a tight balance to a shortage in demand. Regional disparities in natural gas production and consumption are widening, with a high degree of production concentration and clear geographical clustering characteristics. Consumption patterns have undergone significant adjustments, and the overall regional aggregation index shows a trend of decline stabilizing. The gravity center of production initially moved northwest before returning southeast, while the consumption center consistently shifted southeast, showing a dynamic deviation-stabilization process. There exists a significant positive spatial correlation between natural gas production and consumption, albeit with notable differences in spatial clustering characteristics among different provinces. Enhancing supply resilience, optimizing spatial layout, and strengthening policy guidance can effectively respond to changes in natural gas supply and demand, ensuring national energy security.