Ecological Drought Dynamics in Central Asia: Advanced Satellite Monitoring (1990–2025)

Central Asia, one of the world's most climate-vulnerable regions, faces significant ecological drought challenges. This study investigates vegetation change trends and factors influencing ecological drought across Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan over 35 years (1990-2025). Utilizing vegetation cover indices (NDVI, EVI, VCI, SAVI), DMSP/OLS nighttime light data, and climate variables (temperature, precipitation, soil moisture), the research employs remote sensing and statistical analysis. Results indicate a 33% decrease in vegetation cover since 1990, with severe degradation in southern regions and the Aral Sea basin, while northern and mountainous areas show relative stability. Notably, degradation has intensified since 2019, with NDVI dropping to 0.04 in 2023. Dryness, as measured by SPEI/SPI, coincides with increased nighttime light signals, suggesting human activity exacerbates the situation. These findings highlight the urgent need for integrated water and soil resource management strategies in Central Asia.