Projected future autumn leaf phenology of deciduous trees

Autumn leaf phenology (i.e. leaf colouring or leaf senescence) marks the
end of the growing season, during which trees assimilate atmospheric CO2.
Since autumn leaf phenology responds to climatic conditions, climate
change affects the length of the growing season. Thus, autumn phenology is
often modelled to assess possible climate change effects on future CO2
mitigating capacities and species compositions of forests. Here, we give
access to the entire dataset of projected autumn phenology analyzed in
Meier and Bigler (2023). The data was derived from different combinations
of 21 process-oriented phenology models, 5 optimization algorithms, ≥7
sampling procedures, and 26 climate model chains from two representative
concentration pathways. The dataset contains the average autumn phenology
per site and for the years 2080-2099 according to each combination that
led to a successful calibration. Calibration and validation were based on
>45 000 observations for common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.),
pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.), and European larch (Larix decidua
Mill.) from 500 Central European sites each. Cite as Meier, M., &
Bigler, C. (2023). Process-oriented models of autumn leaf phenology: Ways
to sound calibration and implications of uncertain projections.
Geoscientific Model Development, 16(23), 7171–7201.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7171-2023