Supplementary material from "Possible fates of the dispersion of SARS-COV-2 in the Mexican context"

The determination of the adequate time for house confinement and when
social distancing restrictions should end are now two of the main
challenges that any country has to face in an effective battle against.
The possibility of a new outbreak of the pandemic and how to avoid it is,
nowadays, one of the primary objectives of epidemiological research. In
this work, we go deep in this subject by presenting an innovative
compartmental model, that explicitly introduces the number of active
cases, and employing it as a conceptual tool to explore the possible fates
of the dispersion of  SARS-COV-2 in the Mexican context. We
incorporated the impact of starting, inattention, and end of restrictive
social policies on the time evolution of the pandemics via time-in-run
corrections to the infection rates. The magnitude and impact on the
epidemic due to post-social restrictive policies are also studied. The
scenarios generated by the model can help authorities to determine an
adequate time and population load that may be allowed to reassume normal
activities.