Multisectoral Emission Impacts of Electric Vehicle Transition in China and India

Transitioning to electric vehicles
(EVs) is a central
strategy
for reducing carbon dioxide and air pollutant emissions. Although
the emission impacts of reduced gasoline combustion and increased
power generation are well recognized, the impacts of growing EV manufacturing
activities remain understudied. Here, we focus on China and India,
two of the fastest-growing EV markets. Compared to a 2030 baseline
scenario, we find that national emissions of air pollutants could
increase in certain high EV penetration scenarios as a result of the
emission-intensive battery material production and manufacturing processes.
Notably, national sulfur dioxide emissions could increase by 16–20%
if all batteries have nickel- and cobalt-based cathodes and are produced
domestically. Subnational regions that are abundant in battery-related
minerals might emerge as future pollution hotspots. Our study thus
highlights the importance of EV supply chain decisions and related
manufacturing processes in understanding the environmental impacts
of the EV transition.