Voting the Past: Political Inertia and Retrospective Loyalty Among South Korea’s Elderly

This study investigates the persistence of political support among elderly voters in South Korea, focusing on the role of political orientation, retrospective voting, and responsiveness to policy cues. Against the backdrop of the 2024 martial law and the subsequent impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, this study explores why voters aged 70 and older continue to support the conservative party despite democratic erosion. Drawing on panel data and an original survey experiment, the analysis proceeds in two stages: observational models assess the relationship between political orientation and policy preferences, while experimental models test whether retrospective voting interacts with candidate pledges to influence vote intention. Across all models, political behavior in later life appears strikingly stable. Self-reported ideology and policy cues exert little influence, while retrospective voting consistently predicts support. These findings underscore the historical foundations of political inertia among older voters, raising questions about democratic responsiveness in aging electorates.