Replication Data for: Forecasting the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination: Can the Former Heavyweight Champ Win Another Title Shot?

Donald Trump’s bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination is unique in that
no former president since Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 has sought the nomination of
their political party, nor has a candidate sought the nomination while facing multiple
criminal indictments. Using data from previous nomination cycles, we use presidential
nominations from 1980 to 2020 to create a forecast for the 2024 Republican primaries.
The variables in the equations consist of data from the pre-primary period (e.g., money
raised, cash reserves, elite endorsements, and polling results) and a second model
with the results of the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary to forecast the
remaining primary vote. The models accurately predict Trump’s victory despite the
unique nature of his candidacy.