Elucidating the spatio-temporal dynamics of an emerging wildlife pathogen using approximate Bayesian computation

Emerging pathogens constitute a severe threat for human health and biodiversity. Determining the status (native or non-native) of emerging pathogens, and tracing back their spatio-temporal dynamics, is crucial to understand the eco-evolutionary factors promoting their emergence, to control their spread and mitigate their impacts. However, tracing back the spatio-temporal dynamics of emerging wildlife pathogens is challenging because (i) they are often neglected until they become sufficiently abundant and pose socio-economical concerns and (ii) their geographical range is often little known. Here, we combined classical population genetics tools and approximate Bayesian computation (i.e. ABC) to retrace the dynamics of Tracheliastes polycolpus, a poorly documented pathogenic ectoparasite emerging in Western Europe that threatens several freshwater fish species. Our results strongly suggest that populations of T. polycolpus in France emerged from individuals originating from a unique genet...