Results from Bayesian linear model for demography and immune specificity.

Linear model looks at predicted optimal immune specificity as a function of three different life history summary statistics. Results are means and, in brackets, boundaries of 89% highest posterior density intervals (HPDI) for posterior probability distributions for parameter values. Entries in italics indicate the 89% HPDI overlaps with 0 for that parameter. All summary statistics were calculated from original matrix in COMADRE database, log-transformed, and standardized as Z-scores. Dataset includes 298 qualifying matrices from 129 chordate species. For stepped epidemiological scenario, when infection risk is rising, ir in pre-reproductive years is 0.2, and ir in reproductive years is 0.45. When infection risk declines in the stepped scenario, ir in pre-reproductive years is 0.45, and ir in reproductive years is 0.2. In smoothed declining scenario, ir declines from 0.45 to 0.2; in rising scenario, ir rises from 0.2 to 0.45. Other parameter values are μd = 0.3, μi = 0.1, μid = 0.01, ρ = 0.75, and γ = 4.