The Carbon Geography of Emerging Economies: Structural Lock-in of Subnational Spatial Inequality in CO₂ Emissions

Drawing on subnational CO₂ emission data for 30 emerging economies over the period from 2010 to 2018, this study examines whether within-country spatial carbon inequality narrows as economies develop. Regional emission gaps are quantified using the Theil index; national emission structures are classified into distinct types through UMAP and K-means clustering; and temporal stability is assessed via a first-order Markov transition matrix. The results reveal that inequality does not recede. Among the 19 countries with multi-region data in the clustering sample, none registers a Theil index decline of more than 5 % over the study window. Russia records a 5.3 % increase; this is the only clear movement in the sample, and it represents divergence rather than convergence. Cluster membership proves even more persistent: of the 232 country-year transitions, only two (0.86 %) shift type, yielding an average stay probability of 0.986. Two stable emission-structure types emerge: oil-and-transport and mixed, with Kenya occupying a distinct structural outlier position. Theil indices remained nearly unchanged in 17 of the 19 countries over the study period. The policy implication is clear: a uniform decarbonisation strategy cannot adequately address the structurally differentiated emission profiles of emerging economies.