Fish Price and Volatility Trends: An Assessment of Nigeria’s Fishery Subsector

In recent years, there has been an increase in the general price of fish thereby reducing access by the poor. Hence, the factors driving the price increase were examined. Secondary data from the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics and the Central Bank of Nigeria were used. A monthly data on real fish prices, real meat prices, crude oil price, exchange rate, real transport cost and food inflation rate over a period of 86 months was obtained. Descriptive analysis and pictorial representation of the trends were presented. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests were carried out. The GARCH model was adopted in identifying factors responsible for the volatility observed. Results revealed that the variables were stationary at first difference. The graphical representation of the prices showed that variables such as fish prices and meat prices had upward trends while crude oil price and food inflation rate had unpredictable fluctuations until late 2014 when it began the sudden and continuous upward trend. The Johansen test of co-integration was performed on the integrated variables, they were found to be co-integrated and so the normalized coefficient was reported. The exchange rate variable was found to have a long run relationship with fish prices. The GARCH results revealed that variables such as meat prices, transport prices, crude oil price and food inflation rate have significant impact on the fish price. The policy recommends aquaculture development in order to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on fish imports and to stabilize fish prices.