StEER: Hurricane Melissa Preliminary Virtual Reconnaissance Report (PVRR), in StEER - 28 October 2025 Hurricane Melissa

Since 1912, Jamaica has experienced six major hurricanes, striking on average every 23 years and repeatedly disrupting communities, infrastructure, and the economy. The latest among these is Hurricane Melissa which made landfall October 28, 2025 on Jamaica’s southwestern coast near New Hope in Westmoreland Parish at 1:00 PM EDT (17:00 UTC). The storm made landfall as a Category 5 hurricane with estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and an estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb, placing it among the most intense storms on record in the Atlantic basin. After crossing Jamaica from southwest to northeast, Melissa made a second landfall in eastern Cuba as a Category 3 storm, while also impacting parts of Haiti.

The World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) estimate that total direct physical damages in Jamaica are approximately 8.8 billion USD, equivalent to 41% of the national GDP. While early loss models suggested total economic impacts—including indirect losses and business interruption—could potentially match the nation’s annual GDP, verified physical damage alone marks this as the costliest disaster in Jamaica’s history.

As of November 20, 2025, 45 fatalities and 15 missing persons have been confirmed in Jamaica. Rapid assessments indicate that approximately 156,000 dwellings were affected, and more than 191,000 buildings experienced roof loss or other significant structural damage. Catastrophic damage was reported at multiple critical facilities, and severe wind damage was documented at key educational facilities. Widespread disruption to lifelines left over 500,000 customers lost electricity at the storm's peak, and over 760 water systems were offline. The full extent of damage is still being assessed as responders work to overcome the logistical challenges posed by nearly 4.8 million tons of debris. Initial comparisons with Gilbert and Ivan suggest that structures built or retrofitted under more recent Jamaican codes, which integrate wind and seismic provisions, generally achieved better life-safety performance and more robust load paths. In contrast, older non-engineered housing—especially light wood-frame roof construction—remains highly vulnerable.

In response, StEER activated a Level 1 response to evaluate Hurricane Melissa with a Virtual Assessment Structural Team (VAST) formed on October 28, 2025. The VAST was tasked with producing the primary product of this Level 1 response: this Preliminary Virtual Reconnaissance Report (PVRR). The PVRR is intended to: provide an overview of Hurricane Melissa and its hazard characteristics, with emphasis on the effects of wind, storm surge, and rainfall-induced flooding on the built environment; summarize the regulatory environment and prevailing construction and retrofit practices in Jamaica, including the evolution of multi-hazard design requirements since Hurricanes Gilbert and Ivan; synthesize preliminary reports of damage to buildings and other infrastructure and interpret these in the context of prior Jamaican hurricane experience; and outline priority recommendations for further research and next-step reconnaissance, including: (1) systematically documenting performance along the entire roof-to-wall load path; (2) learning from positive deviants with superior roof performance relative to neighboring buildings; (3) identifying appropriate design responses for localized multi-hazard demands; and (4) critically examining whether current scales such as the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale adequately capture hazard amplification in mountainous island settings.

This project encompasses the products of StEER's Level 1 response to this event: Preliminary Virtual Reconnaissance Report (PVRR) with corresponding Media Repository.