Mudanças na pauta das exportações agrícolas brasileiras

This paper aims to contribute to the Brazilian deindustriali- zation debate, attributed to exchange appreciation that, for several au- thors, is the agricultural export increase effect. Constant market share method applied on FAO export data, for the 1991 to 2003 period, indica- tes that Brazilian agricultural export increased more than the potential rate, due to expressive competitiveness gains. After the exchange regime change, in 1999, the competitiveness increase was partly neutralized by growth share of products whose world demand was in decline. Exports value decomposition showed that the volume effect predominates, fact more evident after the flotation exchange adoption, when the price effect was negative. Even discounting the real exchange depreciation effect, the international prices change was unfavourable to the Brazilian agricul- ture. The flexibility effect negative sign during all the period indicates great participation of products in disagreement with the offer law, fact worsened recently, when most of the products whose exports increased in volume had falling prices in the international market. The manufactu- red export decline and the largest basic products trade growth indicated a tendency to agribusiness deindustrialization.