Red drum genotypes and raw fecundity data

Understanding the processes that drive reproductive success in marine fish
stocks is critical to effective fisheries management. These processes can
be difficult to investigate, especially in age-structured populations,
because they occur at transgenerational scales. Reproductive success is
often attributed to a small portion of the adult population (<
0.01%) and thought to be driven primarily by random external factors,
consistent with the concept of sweepstakes reproductive success (SRS). A
competing concept, the reproductive resilience paradigm, posits that fish
have evolved complex spawner-recruit systems to achieve lifetime
reproductive success and maintain population stability within highly
variable environments. Here, we examine these two concepts. First, we
analyze the popular sport fish red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus), drawing on
genetic and reproductive data to estimate a plausible range for the Ne/NA
ratio of effective population size (Ne) to adult abundance (NA) and to
infer variance in lifetime reproductive success (V*k). Then, we synthesize
available data and infer  for two other fishes that have ratios
reportedly > 0.10, the southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii,
Scombridae) and the silver seabream (Chrysophrys auratus, Sparidae).
Although commonly regarded as an SRS species, red drum did not meet the
SRS criterion. Overdispersed values were inferred for all three species,
with those for red drum and silver seabream being dependent upon
population-closure assumptions. Results are presented within the
conceptual framework of reproductive resilience, considering the roles of
random extrinsic forces versus evolved traits to achieve lifetime
reproductive success and population stability in high and variable
mortality environments.