Research on uncertainty in kill effectiveness of anti-ship ballistic missiles

The focus and challenge of research on the operational application of anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) is how to achieve a more accurate kill effectiveness in a highly adversarial and information-incomplete environment. A research framework designed to iteratively reduce the uncertainty of ASBM kill effectiveness is proposed. A simulation model for the evaluation of kill efficiency is established. The uncertainty (unknowns) of influencing factors is characterized by belief degree distribution functions. The belief degree distribution function of kill efficiency is computed based on the simulation model. Additionally, belief entropy is used to examine the global impact measure on the indeterminacy of kill efficiency caused by each element. In the example provided, the unknown range of kill probability is reduced from 0.2～0.6 to 0.41～0.5. The proposed method provides a new way of thinking for the evaluation of the operational effectiveness of military equipment.