Niche dynamics of Memecylon in Sri Lanka: distribution patterns, climate change effects, and conservation priorities

Aim: Recent climate projections have shown that the distribution of organisms in island biotas is highly affected by climate change. Here, we present the results of the analysis of niche dynamics of a plant group, Memecylon on Sri Lanka, an island, using species occurrences and climate data. We aim to determine which climate variables explain current distribution, model how climate change impacts the availability of suitable habitat for Memecylon, and determine conservation priority areas for Sri Lankan Memecylon. Location: Sri Lanka Methods: We used georeferenced occurrence data of Sri Lankan Memecylon to develop ecological niche models and assess both current and future potential distributions under six climate change scenarios in 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. We also overlaid land-cover, and protected area maps and performed a gap analysis to understand the impacts of land-cover changes on Memecylon distributions and propose new areas for conservation. Results: Differences among ...