Market intelligence and gravitational model to identify potential agricultural export markets in the Lambayeque region, Peru 2015-2024.

The Lambayeque region has stood out for its competitive agricultural products, which have contributed to the dynamism of international trade and the growth of Peru's agro-export sector. However, the persistence of concentrated markets, high logistics costs and fluctuations in global demand show that export resilience and sustainability need to be strengthened. The purpose of the research was to analyse agricultural exports from the Lambayeque region in the period 2015-2024 using market intelligence tools and a gravitational model. An explanatory quantitative analysis method was used based on official data from the World Bank, AZATRADE, CEPII and MINCETUR. Market potential was calculated and a gravitational model was estimated using panel data (EGLS, random effects, PCSE correction). The findings show that the value of exports has increased steadily and that the business HHI has fallen significantly (from 6,209 in 2015 to 1,349 in 2024), in addition to a slight concentration of diversification in international markets. Distance had a negative effect, while free trade agreements had a significant positive impact. Finland, Indonesia, Austria, Bolivia, and Vietnam stood out as markets with great potential, while Hong Kong and Israel showed saturated demand due to high competition. In summary, Lambayeque shows rising export performance, but is still susceptible to geographical concentration. In terms of recommendations, it is suggested to promote policies that reduce trade risks and support the sustainable inclusion of the agro-export sector at the regional level, strengthen market intelligence to anticipate trends, optimise logistics infrastructure and promote geographical diversification.