Parameter definitions for the polar bear projection model given by equations 1–2 (between-year population dynamics) and equation 3 (within-year mating dynamics), with estimates given for a generic polar bear population and the Viscount Melville Sound population.

Parameter estimates for the between-year population dynamics are from [27] for the generic population, and from [30] for the Viscount Melville population; estimates for the within-year mating dynamics are from [15]. These probabilities did not differ significantly between males and females in the study population [30]; the sex-specific estimates of [30] were therefore averaged between males and females. & Calculated from the mean litter sizes (LS) reported in the source studies, using c1+2c2 = LS and c1+c2 = 1 (i.e., assuming triplet litters do not occur). sL0, sL1 and f were calculated from sC, sY, c1, and c2 using the formulae in Appendix B of [28]. Habitat area corresponding to the total marine area within the population boundaries; three scenarios were considered, with mating bears concentrating in 15.5%, 50% or 100% of this habitat area, respectively (cf. text for details).